Insights
Perspectives on markets, systems, and the intellectual frameworks that drive our work. Published selectively — when we have something worth saying.
Featured
Traditional portfolio theory assumes diversification reduces risk. In an era of synchronised central bank policy and algorithmic herding, that assumption deserves scrutiny. We examine what genuine diversification looks like in 2026.
Request full paper →A strategy that performs brilliantly in backtesting and fails in live deployment is not a trading system — it is a historical artefact. We explore the methodological discipline required to build systems that actually work.
The structural case for commodities has been building for a decade. We examine the supply constraints, demand dynamics, and positioning signals that suggest the cycle is entering its most rewarding phase.
VaR tells you what you lose 99% of the time. It says nothing about the 1%. For high-wealth investors, the 1% is the only number that matters. We outline a more complete framework for thinking about downside.
Alternative data is only as valuable as the analytical framework applied to it. We examine three years of satellite-derived supply chain data and what it has — and has not — predicted about equity returns.
Strategy design captures most of the attention in systematic trading. Execution captures most of the slippage. We quantify the performance gap between average and optimal execution across liquid equity markets.
Developed market sovereign debt levels are at historic extremes. The question is not whether this resolves — it is when, and through which mechanism. We map the scenarios and their implications for capital allocation.
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